The New York City Recovery Index: December 5
New York City’s economic recovery experienced a major setback for the week ending November 26, 2022, as the overall index score declined five points to 72 out of 100, from 77 in the previous week. Losses were driven by steep declines in home sales and rental inventories, capping a very unfavorable week for the city’s real estate market. Subway ridership and restaurant reservations also declined, albeit more modestly. Meanwhile, COVID-19 hospitalizations surged, rising to their highest levels since mid-July. The sole positive development this week came from falling unemployment insurance (UI) claims, which fell back below their pre-pandemic rolling average.
New York City Recovery Index | Overall
New York City’s economic recovery stands at a score of 72 out of 100, according to the New York City Recovery Index, a joint project between Investopedia and NY1. Over two and a half years into the pandemic, New York City’s economic recovery is just under three-quarters of the way back to pre-pandemic levels.
1. COVID-19 Hospitalizations Rebound
Citywide COVID-19 hospitalizations surged during the week ending November 26, rebounding sharply higher following two consecutive weeks of declines. The city’s hospitals recorded an average of 153 daily hospitalizations, up 28 from 125 recorded in the previous week and marking the highest level for hospitalizations since mid-July.
The BQ.1 subvariant still accounts for the largest share of cases, at 38% of the total as of December 3. The BQ.1.1 strain follows closely behind with a 34.4% share. A new variant labeled XBB now accounts for 8.9% of all infections, surpassing the fading BA.5 variant, which has fallen to a 6.9% share.
2. Unemployment Claims Fall
The number of unemployment insurance (UI) claims filed citywide declined by 970 claims for the week ending November 26, falling from 5,800 to 4,830. Meanwhile, the pre-pandemic rolling average of claims, which tracks the same week of 2019, declined by just 357 claims to total 5,120. As such, UI claims have fallen back below their pre-pandemic rolling average and are now 6% below comparable 2019 levels for this time of year. UI claims remain well within their pre-pandemic range, with the subindex remaining fully recovered. The fall in unemployment claims this week was the sole positive development within the aggregate index.
3. Home Sales Plunge
Citywide pending home sales witnessed a massive decline for the week ending November 26, with total sales plunging to 283 this week, from 423 last week. As a result, home sales are now 23% below their pre-pandemic rolling average. If the downward trend persists over the coming weeks, it could mark the first time in over two years that home sales will fall short of a full recovery, in what has consistently been one of the strongest components of the recovery index to date. Losses in home sales could continue as the national housing market slows, driven by rising mortgage rates, limited supply, and declining affordability. As of this week, Queens remains the only major borough where home sales continue to exceed 2019 levels, with home sales in the borough currently 5.9% above their pre-pandemic rolling average. Manhattan and Brooklyn have fallen behind significantly, with home sales now 27.6% and 33.2% below their pre-pandemic baselines, respectively.
